. . . Article
updated June 17, 2002
|
Is
CWD really confined
Click Here for More 4/15/03 |
Where's the Beef? The foundation of the DNR plan to exterminate 25,000+ deer near Mt. Horeb - and entirely eliminate the herd - is that this is the "Hot Spot" - the location of the only Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) infected deer in the State of Wisconsin. Ergo, if we don't stop 'em here, they'll spread to the entire state and eventually wipe out the entire deer herd in the State of Wisconsin.
Natural Resources authorities from western states, who have never undertaken an extermination effort like the one proposed by the WDNR and have no experience with its conduct or consequences, have nonetheless given 'lip service' in support of this massive kill based on the assumption that this is the one and only "Hot Spot" in Wisconsin. This says more about "fraternity" than science.
Let's examine what little data there is to support this
assertion. Some facts from the DNR:)
-
There are 145 Deer Management Units (DMUs) in the state
- In 2001, 345 deer were sampled - statewide - for Chronic Wasting Disease
- Of the 345 samples, 82 were in one DMU - 70A - encompassing Mt. Horeb
- The average
sample for the remaining 144 DMUs was 1.7 deer!
Does it not seem like the deck is stacked to discover CWD in 70A? If
we assume - for the moment - that CWD is evenly distributed throughout
the deer herd in Wisconsin, the DNRs' skewed sample meant that on the
average they were
48 times more likely to find CWD in 70A than elsewhere in the
state!
Thus their own data strongly suggests the Mt. Horeb "Hot Spot" is simply a statistical artifact of how they collected their data. CWD could easily be spread statewide and only shows up in Mt. Horeb because they took such a relatively large sample there.
Another problem with the statewide sample are significant sample gaps - many Deer Management Units known to contain large deer populations were not even sampled at all in 2001. In fact many have never been sampled in the three years of testing. Some examples:
- 3 miles west of the "Hot Spot" is DMU 73E. Zero (0) samples in 3 years of testing.
- 3 miles south of the "Hot Spot" is DMU 75D. Zero (0) samples in 3 years of testing.
- 3 contiguous
DMUs bounded by Dodgeville, Spring Green, Prairie du Chein, and Dubuque.
Zero (0) samples in 3 years of testing. - 7 contiguous
DMUs in Mississipi-St. Croix River valley - from LaCrosse to St. Croix
Falls.
Zero (0) samples in 3 years of testing. - 18 contiguous
DMUs from Marshfield to Bayfield - encompassing the entire Chequamegon
National Forest.
Zero (0) samples in 3 years of testing. - 34 of
the 45 Zone T DMUs (considered significantly overpopulated by the DNR).
Zero (0) samples in 3 years of testing.
All we can conclude from the DNR's sampling to date is that there are confirmed cases of CWD in Deer Management Unit 70D in and around the communities of Mount Horeb, Blue Mounds, Black Earth, Mazomanie, Cross Plains, Pine Bluff, Barneveld, and Ridgeway Wisconsin.
Whether or not CWD exists beyond this area and elsewhere in the State is unknown - since there has been no testing of any significance elsewhere. Essentially we have found CWD in the one area where we have looked hard enough to find it!
If in the future a scientifically honest and rigorous sampling method
is followed, we may indeed find
1 - 3% of the deer population in many locations throughout Wisconsin show
evidence of CWD. It may prove to be a natural phenomena with a very slow
rate of infection (or almost nonexistent) among wild animals - as a number
of biological and veterinarian scientists have suggested could be the
case. With the precedent the DNR is establishing in Mt. Horeb (any time
we find 2% infected, we kill 100% of the deer in the DMU) we may decimate
Wisconsin's deer herd much quicker than any disease could accomplish.
The data available so far looks and smells quite "cooked. " As UW Biotech Scientist Anthony Grabski has publicly requested - "Let's see the Raw Data" so independent research and statistical professionals can weigh it and render an opinion. Lets open up the exploration of the issues and have the "sifting and winnowing" that is the hallmark of the great University of Wisconsin.
As a UW trained professional with a graduate research degree, I am embarrassed by the quality of "research" reported by the Wisconsin DNR to support their case. And frankly, I find the missing data and the tremendous "spin" given to carefully selected tidbits greatly damages the credibility of the department.
|
Editor's
Note: Since publication of this article and as a result of pressure from CAIDS and other groups, the Wisconsin DNR has embarked on a program to test for CWD across the state. As of January 7, 2003 five cases have been found elsewhere in the state and seven cases have been discovered in northern Illinois not far from the Wisconsin border. While the total samples taken by the DNR is impressive, they have continued to load the deck towards discovery in the Eradication Zone. In the 411 square mile zone - an area smaller than most Wisconsin counties - 10,689 samples have been taken. In the 61 counties outside of the Management Zone, the average sample was 348. With so many counties undersampled, we simply won't know the true status of CWD across the state. A good example is Ashland County - covered in part by the Chequamegon National Forest. At 25 deer per square mile, this county would have over 25,000 deer. One evening last fall I saw over 40 deer at various points along the highway between Glidden and Clam Lake. I know from personal experience the area is crawling with deer. Yet the DNRs voluntary sample program netted only 326 deer - substantially less than 2% of the estimated population. At over 1000 square miles, Ashland County is larger than average and lots of deep woods. It requires no "science mind" to grasp that in such a vast territory and with such a small sample, it would be quite easy for 100 infected deer to escape being detected. It also takes little imagination to figure why hunters who love the Chequamegon National Forest wouldn't be lining up in droves to let the DNR test their deer. Given a choice between the medicine of killing all the deer in an area of discovered infection and living with some CWD, most chose the latter. To get an accurate picture of the status of CWD across the state, samples will need to be proporational to the deer population of a county and drawn in such a way to insure all deer holding regions of the county get adequately sampled. The "Voluntary" sample donation program used in 2002 simply left too many gaps to provide meaningful results.
|
--Ross Reinhold
roscoe@mhtc.net
15 year Harvest Data in 70A measure effectiveness of CWD Management Plan (published April 1, 2004)
The
Science of CWD & Chronic Wasting Disease
"Where's
the Beef II?" The political management of Data and Statistics continues
Chronic
Wasting Disease in Deer & Elk: a critique of current models and their
application.
Articles
and Papers on Wisconsin Chronic Wasting Disease and DNR proposals
Chronic
Wasting Disease Symposium at the University of Wisconsin
Chronic
Wasting Disease - CWD Links and Other Resources